Sunzone Power on Micro Gold (MGC)
Should you use it?
Use with cautionUsable, with caveats
It meets the brief on MGC, but read the caveats before trading it — and run it in simulation first.
- Stayed profitable going forward at 4 of 4 walk-forward cut-offs.
- Would have been picked in advance at all 4 cut-offs.
- An isolated optimum: neighbouring stop/target settings don't pass, so small drifts could break it.
- Thin edge — average trade $2 is under 3 ticks.
Recommended set
MGC · 5-minute bars · Long · EQ reversion, NYC zones only, zones up to 1 day old · 02:00–08:00 ET entry window · 157-tick (15.7 pt, $157) stop · target at the zone midpoint
Net profit
+$790
1 MGC contract · after commission
Profit factor
2.61
$2.61 won per $1 lost
Max drawdown
$161
net / drawdown 4.9 : 1
Win rate
62%
389 trades · 0.7 per day
Per month
+$32
largest loss −$159
One contract · NinjaTrader 8 Strategy Analyzer, Aug 2024 – Sep 2026, after commission.
What the numbers say
- It meets the brief. Target: profit factor above 1.0 and at least 3 : 1 net profit to max drawdown. Result (NT8 Strategy Analyzer, with the “NinjaTrader Brokerage Free” commission template): PF 2.61 and 4.9 : 1 on 389 trades.
- Profitable in every calendar year of the test (2024: +$78, 2025: +$515, 2026: +$700); 25 of 26 months positive; best 2026-03 (+$310), worst 2026-01 (−$130).
- Long / short split. Longs +$790 on 389 trades, shorts $0 on 0.
- Exposure. Average 9 minutes in the market, 0.7 trades per session; every trade closed within the Globex session it was opened in (0 at the 15:55 flatten, 1 at the 17:00 session close), nothing carried across the 17:00 break or a roll — but note that overnight entries are held through the night session.
- Walk-forward. The in-sample winner failed forward at 3 of 4 cut-offs. The recommended set was positive forward at 4 of 4 cut-offs (forward PF 4.54–5.80, net/DD 3.8–6.1) and would have passed the in-sample gate at 4 of 4 of them — a consistent forward record.
- Plateau. 16 of 72 stop/target cells in the same family pass PF > 1 and net/DD ≥ 3 over the full period — a narrow ridge.
- Verified. The replica behind the sweep matched NT8’s trade count on the validation window (127 vs 127); headline figures come from NT8’s own engine.
Set it up in NinjaTrader
Add ToredaSunriseStrategy to a MGC 5-minute chart (or the Strategy Analyzer) and change only these inputs — everything else stays at the strategy default:
| Input | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Data series | MGC, 5 Minute, Last | Front-month contract; NT8 merge policy “MergeBackAdjusted” supplies the history. |
| Mode (Sunrise Strategy) | EqReversion | Default Breakout. |
| Cities | NYC | Default NYC,LON,TYO,DXB,AKL (the indicator’s five enabled cities; the list can only narrow them). |
| Max Zone Age (days) | 1 | Default 3. |
| Max Bars To Retest | 30 | Default 30; only used in BreakRetest mode. |
| Direction | Long | Longs 389 / shorts 0 trades. |
| Stop Unit / Stop Ticks (Risk) | Ticks / 157 | 15.7 MGC points = $157 per contract before slippage. |
| Target Unit / Target Ticks (Risk) | Ticks / 8 (unused) | The strategy targets the zone midpoint for every trade; leave the default. |
| Use Breakeven / Use Trail | false / false | |
| Use Time Window (Session) | true | Window 02:00 → 08:00 (America/New_York). |
| Use Flatten Time / Flatten | true / 15:55 | Default. |
| Max Trades Per Day | 0 | 0 = unlimited. |
| Analyzer: order fill resolution | High, 1 Minute | Matches the runs in this report; commission template “NinjaTrader Brokerage Free” (≈ $2.40 per round turn). |
1 contract vs 3 contracts
One position at a time, so size scales cleanly: the ratios stay the same and every dollar figure is three times larger.
| 1 contract | 3 contracts | |
|---|---|---|
| Net profit (after commission) | +$790 | +$2,371 |
| Gross profit / gross loss | $1,281 / −$491 | $3,843 / −$1,472 |
| Commission paid | $934 | $2,801 |
| Profit factor | 2.61 | 2.61 |
| Max drawdown | $161 | $482 |
| Net / max drawdown | 4.9 : 1 | 4.9 : 1 |
| Profit per month | +$32 | +$95 |
| Average winner / loser | $5 / −$3 | $16 / −$10 |
| Largest loss | −$159 | −$478 |
| Worst losing streak (7 trades) | −$23 | −$69 |
| Risk per trade at the stop | $157 + costs | $471 + costs |
| Suggested risk capital (≈ 3 × max drawdown) | $482 | $1,447 |
Year by year
| year | trades | net | PF | win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 69 | +$78 | 7.28 | 64% |
| 2025 | 192 | +$515 | 13.72 | 74% |
| 2026 | 127 | +$700 | 5.16 | 83% |
| in-sample (→ 2025-12-31) | 233 | +$530 | 12.17 | net/DD 32.1 |
| out-of-sample (2026) | 113 | +$596 | 4.54 | net/DD 3.8 |
How robust is it?
Walk-forward check
The in-sample winner held up forward at 1 of 4 cut-offs; the recommended set was positive forward at 4 of 4 and would have passed the gate at 4 of 4. That is the strongest evidence in this report.
Monte Carlo
The observed drawdown ($152) sits at the high end of what the same daily results could have produced — 16% of resampled histories draw down further, and 1 in 20 reaches $236 or more. The edge is not in doubt in this sample: 0.0% of resampled histories end below zero and the 3 : 1 brief holds in 98% of them. Reordering the same trades (second row) moves the drawdown little: the 95th-percentile sequence-risk drawdown is $160. Size the account on the 95th-percentile drawdown ($236 per contract) plus margin, not on the observed $152, and expect up to 63 trading days without a new equity high.
At the default settings
At its defaults the strategy loses on every timeframe tested.
| configuration (defaults) | trades | net | PF | max DD | win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m Both S40t T80t Brk ALL age3 ETH | 1,574 | −$612 | 0.98 | $4,366 | 37% |
| 2m Both S40t T80t Brk ALL age3 ETH | 1,573 | −$3,280 | 0.92 | $4,724 | 35% |
| 3m Both S40t T80t Brk ALL age3 ETH | 1,582 | −$1,075 | 0.97 | $4,021 | 37% |
| 5m Both S40t T80t Brk ALL age3 ETH | 1,583 | −$5,102 | 0.87 | $6,529 | 34% |
| 10m Both S40t T80t Brk ALL age3 ETH | 1,576 | −$6,062 | 0.85 | $7,210 | 34% |
| 15m Both S40t T80t Brk ALL age3 ETH | 1,577 | −$9,390 | 0.78 | $10,098 | 32% |
| 30m Both S40t T80t Brk ALL age3 ETH | 1,505 | −$15,002 | 0.65 | $15,726 | 28% |
Know before you trade it
- Selection bias. 666,792 configurations were searched; the walk-forward is the only evidence not contaminated by the search. The recommended set passed it.
- Plateau width. 16 of 72 neighbouring stop/target cells pass — the set sits on a narrow ridge; small drifts in volatility could move it off.
- Instrument-specific. Stops and targets are in MGC ticks; do not transfer them to another instrument — each instrument has its own report.
- Fill assumptions. Both engines fill stops at the stop price and targets on touch; live fills will be worse.
- Two years, one regime. The sample is Aug 2024 → Sep 2026; behaviour in other regimes is untested.
Getting started
- Run it in simulation first with the inputs above and compare the first 100–200 trades against the forward statistics before any live size.
- Do not chase the leaderboard. Re-optimising to whatever tops the in-sample ranking is the procedure the walk-forward check shows failing.
Sunzone Power on other instruments
Backtest results are hypothetical. They were produced with the benefit of hindsight on historical data, do not represent actual trading, and cannot fully account for slippage, liquidity or the emotional pressure of live trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss. See our risk disclosure for details.