Supply Scout on Micro Nasdaq-100 (MNQ)
Should you use it?
Use with cautionUsable, with caveats
It meets the brief on MNQ, but read the caveats before trading it — and run it in simulation first.
- Stayed profitable going forward at 4 of 4 walk-forward cut-offs.
- Would have been picked in advance at only 1 of 4 cut-offs — the edge was found with the whole period in view.
Recommended set
MNQ · 15-minute bars · both directions · Periods 3 · Break Type WickBody · full session with the 15:55 flatten · 240-tick (60 pt) stop · 160-tick (40 pt) target
Net profit
+$14,408
1 MNQ contract · after commission
Profit factor
1.13
$1.13 won per $1 lost
Max drawdown
$2,399
net / drawdown 6.0 : 1
Win rate
63%
2,551 trades · 4.8 per day
Per month
+$569
+$1,708 with 3 contracts
One contract · NinjaTrader 8 Strategy Analyzer, Aug 2024 – Sep 2026, after commission.
What the numbers say
- It meets the brief over the full period. The target was a profit factor above 1.0 and at least 3 : 1 net profit to max drawdown. In NinjaTrader 8’s Strategy Analyzer, with the “NinjaTrader Brokerage Free” commission template, the recommended set delivers PF 1.13 and 6.0 : 1 on 2,551 trades — a large enough sample that the ratios are not luck.
- Both sides pay. Longs +$7,443 on 1,329 trades, shorts +$6,965 on 1,222 — an almost even split, unusual for a two-year window in which the index trended up.
- Always flat by the close. Every trade is closed the same session (the 15:55 flatten or an early holiday close); nothing is carried overnight or across a contract roll. Average time in market 69 minutes.
- Verified twice. Every figure above comes from NT8’s own engine; the 105,840-run parameter sweep behind the choice was made in a replica that matches NT8 to the trade.
- Read the walk-forward before sizing up. The edge here got stronger over the two years (PF 1.09 in 2024, 1.14 in 2025, 1.18 in 2026) and the set’s first year alone would not have passed the 3 : 1 bar. It was positive after every earlier cut-off tested (forward PF 1.17–1.19, net/DD 4.1–5.6, the walk-forward check), but the parameter plateau around it is narrower than the pullback strategy’s. Plan on PF 1.1 and net/DD 3–4 live, and treat this as the second bot in the stable, not the first.
Set it up in NinjaTrader
Add ToredaDSBreakStrategy to an MNQ 15-minute chart (or the Strategy Analyzer) and change only these inputs — everything else stays at the strategy default:
| Input | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Data series | MNQ, 15 Minute, Last | Front-month contract; NT8 merge policy “MergeBackAdjusted” supplies the history. |
| Direction (Demand/Supply) | Both | Longs: 1,329 trades, +$7,443 · Shorts: 1,222 trades, +$6,965. |
| Periods (Demand/Supply) | 3 | Default is 5. Fractals confirmed 3 bars late; 2 and 4 are half as good, 5 and above lose. |
| Break Type | WickBody | Default. Body-close breaks lose most of the edge. |
| Stop Unit / Stop Ticks (Risk) | Ticks / 240 | 60 MNQ points = $120 risk per contract before slippage. |
| Target Unit / Target Ticks (Risk) | Ticks / 160 | 40 MNQ points = $80. Reward-to-risk 0.67 : 1; wins 63% of the time. |
| Use Breakeven / Use Trail | false / false | Every breakeven trigger below the target and every trailing distance reduce net profit. |
| Use Time Window (Session) | false | Default — the set trades the whole ETH session; a 09:30 window cuts the trade count by 75% and the profit by more. |
| Use Flatten Time / Flatten | true / 15:55 | Defaults. |
| Max Trades Per Day | 0 (optional: 3) | A cap of 3 per day is the one refinement that helps — net/DD 9.0 and OOS PF 1.29 on 1,598 trades. Left off in the headline set because it was found on the full period. |
| Quarter, Sunrise, SMT filters | off | Defaults. |
| Analyzer: order fill resolution | High, 1 Minute | Matches the runs in this report. Commission template “NinjaTrader Brokerage Free” (≈ $1.90 per round turn). |
1 contract vs 3 contracts
One position at a time, so size scales cleanly: the ratios stay the same and every dollar figure is three times larger.
| 1 contract | 3 contracts | |
|---|---|---|
| Net profit (after commission) | +$14,408 | +$43,224 |
| Gross profit / gross loss | $123,523 / −$109,115 | $370,568 / −$327,344 |
| Commission paid | $4,847 | $14,541 |
| Profit factor | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| Max drawdown | $2,399 | $7,197 |
| Net / max drawdown | 6.0 : 1 | 6.0 : 1 |
| Profit per month | +$569 | +$1,708 |
| Average winner / loser | $77 / −$116 | $230 / −$347 |
| Largest loss (stop + commission) | −$122 | −$366 |
| Worst losing streak (5 trades) | −$579 | −$1,736 |
| Risk per trade at the 60-pt stop | $120 + costs | $360 + costs |
| Suggested risk capital (≈ 3 × max drawdown) | $7,197 | $21,590 |
Year by year
| year | trades | net | PF | win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 (Aug–Dec) | 441 | +$1,744 | 1.09 | 61% |
| 2025 | 1,163 | +$6,740 | 1.14 | 63% |
| 2026 (to Sep 11) | 949 | +$7,160 | 1.18 | 64% |
| in-sample (→ 2025-12-31) | 1,607 | +$8,320 | 1.12 | net/DD 3.5 |
| out-of-sample (2026) | 949 | +$7,160 | 1.18 | net/DD 3.2 |
How robust is it?
Walk-forward check
Three of the four in-sample champions are 20–40-tick-target scalpers with a 320–400-tick stop — sets that win 95–100% of a few dozen trades until one stop wipes out a month. They are the textbook over-fit and none of them earns anything meaningful forward. The mechanical plateau rule (pick the configuration whose stop/target neighbours also score well, with at least 150 in-sample trades) does no better: it chooses 15- or 30-minute Body-break sets at every cut and they go flat or negative forward (PF 0.80–1.10).
At the default settings
At its defaults (Periods 5, WickBody, 40/80-tick bracket) the strategy fires on every fractal break and loses on every timeframe: the 1 : 2 bracket wins only ~31% of the time. The recommended set changes three things — a faster fractal (3 instead of 5), a much wider stop with a smaller target, and 15-minute bars — and each of the three is necessary.
| configuration (defaults) | trades | net | PF | max DD | win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m Both S40t T80t P5 Wick ETH | 23,940 | −$51,752 | 0.85 | $52,084 | 32% |
| 2m Both S40t T80t P5 Wick ETH | 13,883 | −$33,258 | 0.84 | $33,424 | 32% |
| 3m Both S40t T80t P5 Wick ETH | 9,868 | −$21,854 | 0.85 | $21,922 | 32% |
| 5m Both S40t T80t P5 Wick ETH | 6,087 | −$7,936 | 0.91 | $8,334 | 34% |
| 10m Both S40t T80t P5 Wick ETH | 3,179 | −$4,388 | 0.90 | $5,116 | 34% |
| 15m Both S40t T80t P5 Wick ETH | 2,178 | −$3,734 | 0.88 | $3,894 | 33% |
| 30m Both S40t T80t P5 Wick ETH | 1,172 | −$3,298 | 0.81 | $3,501 | 31% |
Know before you trade it
- Selection bias — measured, and larger here. 105,840 configurations were searched; the walk-forward check shows both mechanical selection rules failing forward at every cut-off, and the recommended set itself would not have been selected before mid-2025. Its forward record is good (PF 1.17–1.19), but it was identified with the whole period in view. The forward figures, not the headline, are the ones to plan on.
- A ridge, not a plateau. Periods 3 and the 240-tick stop are both sharp optima. A strategy whose edge depends on exact values is more likely to drift than one with a broad plateau; re-check it quarterly.
- Improving trend in the edge. PF rose from 1.09 (2024) to 1.18 (2026). That could be the strategy suiting the higher-volatility, faster-rotating market of 2025–26 — in which case a return to the 2024 regime would take it back towards break-even.
- Slippage-sensitive. ~5 round turns a day with an average win of $77: two ticks of slippage per side removes 40% of net/DD. Use limit entries or a broker with tight MNQ fills, and monitor realised slippage.
- Instrument-specific. The bracket is in ticks; do not carry these inputs to MES/ES/NQ — re-run the sweep per instrument.
- Contract rolls and data. The replica rolls at the first bar of each new contract’s NT8 history with back-adjustment; NT8 uses its own roll dates. The two agreed to two trades in 2,551. NT8’s database has two short weekday holes (2026-06-15 afternoon, 2026-07-17 late morning) that both engines share.
Getting started
- Run it in simulation first, on MNQ 15-minute bars with the inputs above, sized for a $120 stop per contract, and compare the first 150–200 trades (about two months at ~5 a day) against the forward statistics: PF ≈ 1.15, ~63% winners, ≈ $569/month per contract. A PF below 1.0 after 200 trades or a drawdown beyond $3,500 per contract is outside anything seen in the test and is the signal to stop.
- Consider the 3-per-day cap once the base set has a live track record; it improved every forward metric in the test but was found on the full period, so let live data confirm it.
- Do not add breakeven or trailing stops, and do not restrict it to the morning — all of those were tested and hurt.
- Do not chase the leaderboard. The in-sample champions in the walk-forward check are 20–40-tick scalpers that look flawless and earn nothing; if the set is re-tuned, stay at Periods 3 / WickBody, stop 240–480, target 120–160, and judge only on a forward segment.
- Pair it with the pullback strategy rather than choosing between them: the pullback set trades 09:30–12:00 on 3-minute bars with a broad plateau; this one trades the rest of the clock on 15-minute bars. Their drawdown periods do not coincide (June–July 2026 for the pullback, June and December 2025 here).
Supply Scout on other instruments
Backtest results are hypothetical. They were produced with the benefit of hindsight on historical data, do not represent actual trading, and cannot fully account for slippage, liquidity or the emotional pressure of live trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss. See our risk disclosure for details.